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Fannie, Freddie See Progress for Economy in 2012

Despite the risk posed by more economic and political shock globally, the U.S. economy and housing market appear to be recovering, with more warmth expected for the latter in 2012, chief economists with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said this week.

Doug Duncan, VP and chief economist with Fannie, and Frank Nothaft, with Freddie, each released separate forecasts in February for the year.

The consensus: Low-interest rates and job growth will help strengthen a still-soft housing market, warding off broader economic forces like rising oil, deficit politics, and potential shocks from the debt crisis in Europe.

“Risks to the forecast are more balanced between the upside and downside since our January forecast,” Duncan said in a statement. “The economy appears to be more resilient than in previous months, and should be less vulnerable to shocks, including any spillover from the

European sovereign debt crisis.

He said Tuesday that economic growth would likely rebound from 2011 by hitting 2.3 percent this year, an improvement from 1.6 percent seen for growth last year.

Nothaft’s analysis largely agreed with his, with the chief economist saying in a separate statement Wednesday that “[o]ur outlook anticipates gradual, but steady, improvement in the economy and the housing market, supported by low interest rates and brightening job market prospects.”

Citing a National Association of Realtors index, he said that a 5-percent spurt for existing-home sales in December helped balance declines in November home prices for Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 10- and 20-city indices by 3.6 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively.

A market for historically low interest rates simultaneously keeps the market at all-time highs of affordability, with the Mortgage Bankers Association offering 4.1-percent spikes in mortgage application volume in January partly as a result, he said.

Duncan added that economic growth even so will “remain constrained by various headwinds,” including a possible jump in oil prices, expected dips in net export volume, and an expected increase for fiscal problems.

Less sure is the outlook for the companies themselves.

On Tuesday their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, released a strategic plan that called for lawmakers to slowly wind down Fannie and Freddie, replace the GSEs with another securitization platform, and court private capital back to the secondary market.


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