Revealing results from its predictive modeling survey of Las Vegas, Nevada, and Phoneix, Arizona, Carwin Advisors is forecasting the recovery timeline for both metropolitan areas. According to Carwin, Las Vegas will have a longer wait for housing market improvement, while Phoenix is expected to be well on the way to recovery by 2013.

Carwin’s report evaluated multiple variables in both regions including distressed housing stock, shadow inventory, and market pace. The data model utilized by Carwin hinges on the eventual upward pressure on home pricing and home construction as Las Vegas and Phoenix begin to experience dropping numbers of distressed properties.

For Las Vegas, Carwin predicts that the housing market will eventually normalize to levels of new and existing home sales that were average for the metro area during the early 2000s. However, the company’s recent paper indicates that such strong, positive momentum isn’t likely to occur until around 2016 due to the heavy burden of distressed properties in the region.

Analysis for Phoenix shows that a healthy housing market is closer at hand, and Carwin is forecasting a rapid absorption of distressed stock during 2012. By 2013, Phoenix should be experiencing a significant uptick across the general housing market, promoting better stability and paving the way for greater gains.

To conduct its statistical survey of Las Vegas and Phoenix, Carwin’s study encompassed the following assumptions: all mortgages financed between 2002 and 2006 are underwater or near negative equity, 100 percent of all new home sales were credit sales, and 75 percent of all resales were credit sales. Additionally, Carwin’s model included several critical variables targeting the absorption of distressed inventory.

Carwin, a Winchester Carlisle Company, operates as a national full-service real estate advisory firm. The company specializes in creating solutions to complex problems and working with multiple stakeholders to restructure, manage, finance, develop, and dispose of residential, commercial, and mixed-use real estate assets.